Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making

The STAR Time Projection Chamber: A Unique Tool for Studying High Multiplicity Events at RHIC

The STAR Time Projection Chamber (TPC) is used to record collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The TPC is the central element in a suite of detectors that surrounds the interaction vertex. The TPC provides complete coverage around the beam-line, and provides complete tracking for charged particles within +- 1.8 units of pseudo-rapidity of the center-of-mass frame. Charged particles with momenta greater than 100 MeV/c are recorded. Multiplicities in excess of 3,000 tracks per event are routinely reconstructed in the software. The TPC measures 4 m in diameter by 4.2 m long, making it the largest TPC in the world.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figure

Centrality and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow of multi-strange hadrons and ϕ\phi meson in Au+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200 GeV

We present high precision measurements of elliptic flow near midrapidity ($|y|<1.0$) for multi-strange hadrons and $\phi$ meson as a function of centrality and transverse momentum in Au+Au collisions at center of mass energy $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=$ 200 GeV. We observe that the transverse momentum dependence of $\phi$ and $\Omega$ $v_{2}$ is similar to that of $\pi$ and $p$, respectively, which may indicate that the heavier strange quark flows as strongly as the lighter up and down quarks. This observation constitutes a clear piece of evidence for the development of partonic collectivity in heavy-ion collisions at the top RHIC energy. Number of constituent quark scaling is found to hold within statistical uncertainty for both 0-30$\%$ and 30-80$\%$ collision centrality. There is an indication of the breakdown of previously observed mass ordering between $\phi$ and proton $v_{2}$ at low transverse momentum in the 0-30$\%$ centrality range, possibly indicating late hadronic interactions affecting the proton $v_{2}$.Comment: 7 pages and 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Observation of charge asymmetry dependence of pion elliptic flow and the possible chiral magnetic wave in heavy-ion collisions

We present measurements of $\pi^-$ and $\pi^+$ elliptic flow, $v_2$, at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{\rm NN}}} =$ 200, 62.4, 39, 27, 19.6, 11.5 and 7.7 GeV, as a function of event-by-event charge asymmetry, $A_{ch}$, based on data from the STAR experiment at RHIC. We find that $\pi^-$ ($\pi^+$) elliptic flow linearly increases (decreases) with charge asymmetry for most centrality bins at $\sqrt{s_{_{\rm NN}}} = \text{27 GeV}$ and higher. At $\sqrt{s_{_{\rm NN}}} = \text{200 GeV}$, the slope of the difference of $v_2$ between $\pi^-$ and $\pi^+$ as a function of $A_{ch}$ exhibits a centrality dependence, which is qualitatively similar to calculations that incorporate a chiral magnetic wave effect. Similar centrality dependence is also observed at lower energies.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Observation of Transverse Spin-Dependent Azimuthal Correlations of Charged Pion Pairs in p↑+pp^\uparrow+p at s=200\sqrt{s}=200 GeV

We report the observation of transverse polarization-dependent azimuthal correlations in charged pion pair production with the STAR experiment in $p^\uparrow+p$ collisions at RHIC. These correlations directly probe quark transversity distributions. We measure signals in excess of five standard deviations at high transverse momenta, at high pseudorapidities eta>0.5, and for pair masses around the mass of the rho-meson. This is the first direct transversity measurement in p+p collisions. Comparing the results to data from lepton-nucleon scattering will test the universality of these spin-dependent quantities.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 15 tables. Submitted to PR

Energy dependence of acceptance-corrected dielectron excess mass spectrum at mid-rapidity in Au+Au collisions at sNN=19.6\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 19.6 and 200 GeV

The acceptance-corrected dielectron excess mass spectra, where the known hadronic sources have been subtracted from the inclusive dielectron mass spectra, are reported for the first time at mid-rapidity $|y_{ee}|<1$ in minimum-bias Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 200 GeV. The excess mass spectra are consistently described by a model calculation with a broadened $\rho$ spectral function for $M_{ee}<1.1$ GeV/$c^{2}$. The integrated dielectron excess yield at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 GeV for $0.4<M_{ee}<0.75$ GeV/$c^2$, normalized to the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity, has a value similar to that in In+In collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 17.3 GeV. For $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV, the normalized excess yield in central collisions is higher than that at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 17.3 GeV and increases from peripheral to central collisions. These measurements indicate that the lifetime of the hot, dense medium created in central Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV is longer than those in peripheral collisions and at lower energies.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure

Azimuthal anisotropy in U+U and Au+Au collisions at RHIC

Collisions between prolate uranium nuclei are used to study how particle production and azimuthal anisotropies depend on initial geometry in heavy-ion collisions. We report the two- and four-particle cumulants, $v_2\{2\}$ and $v_2\{4\}$, for charged hadrons from U+U collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}$ = 193 GeV and Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}$ = 200 GeV. Nearly fully overlapping collisions are selected based on the amount of energy deposited by spectators in the STAR Zero Degree Calorimeters (ZDCs). Within this sample, the observed dependence of $v_2\{2\}$ on multiplicity demonstrates that ZDC information combined with multiplicity can preferentially select different overlap configurations in U+U collisions. An initial-state model with gluon saturation describes the slope of $v_2\{2\}$ as a function of multiplicity in central collisions better than one based on Glauber with a two-component multiplicity model.Comment: Final paper version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Lett. New version includes comparisons to a constituent quark glauber mode

Long-range pseudorapidity dihadron correlations in dd+Au collisions at sNN=200\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}=200 GeV

Dihadron angular correlations in $d$+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}=200$ GeV are reported as a function of the measured zero-degree calorimeter neutral energy and the forward charged hadron multiplicity in the Au-beam direction. A finite correlated yield is observed at large relative pseudorapidity ($\Delta\eta$) on the near side (i.e. relative azimuth $\Delta\phi\sim0$). This correlated yield as a function of $\Delta\eta$ appears to scale with the dominant, primarily jet-related, away-side ($\Delta\phi\sim\pi$) yield. The Fourier coefficients of the $\Delta\phi$ correlation, $V_{n}=\langle\cos n\Delta\phi\rangle$, have a strong $\Delta\eta$ dependence. In addition, it is found that $V_{1}$ is approximately inversely proportional to the mid-rapidity event multiplicity, while $V_{2}$ is independent of it with similar magnitude in the forward ($d$-going) and backward (Au-going) directions.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure